three major reasons why some forecasters can perform better or worse than others: 1. They can be more skilled at finding and analyzing data in the environment that are relevant to the prediction they have to make. This explanation points to the importance of information. 2. Some forecasters may have a general tendency to err on a particular side of the true value of a forecast. If, out of hundreds of forecasts, you systematically overestimate or underestimate the probability that certain changes from the status quo will occur, you can be said to suffer from a form of bias, in favor of either
...more
