the effect of reducing an error from 11cm to 10cm is 21 times as large as the effect of going from an error of 1cm to a perfect hit. Unfortunately, people’s intuitions in this regard are almost the mirror image of what they should be: people are very keen to get perfect hits and highly sensitive to small errors, but they hardly care at all about the difference between two large errors. Even if you sincerely believe that your goal is to make accurate judgments, your emotional reaction to results may be incompatible with the achievement of accuracy as science defines it.
