if you can get independent opinions from others, do it—this real wisdom of crowds is highly likely to improve your judgment. If you cannot, make the same judgment yourself a second time to create an “inner crowd.” You can do this either after some time has passed—giving yourself distance from your first opinion—or by actively trying to argue against yourself to find another perspective on the problem. Finally, regardless of the type of crowd, unless you have very strong reasons to put more weight on one of the estimates, your best bet is to average them.
