Speaking of Objective Ignorance “Wherever there is prediction, there is ignorance, and probably more of it than we think. Have we checked whether the experts we trust are more accurate than dart-throwing chimpanzees?” “When you trust your gut because of an internal signal, not because of anything you really know, you are in denial of your objective ignorance.” “Models do better than people, but not by much. Mostly, we find mediocre human judgments and slightly better models. Still, better is good, and models are better.” “We may never be comfortable using a model to make these decisions—we
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