Wally Bock

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The main implication of this view of confidence is that subjective confidence in one’s judgment by no means guarantees accuracy. Moreover, the suppression of alternative interpretations—a well-documented process in perception—could induce what we have called the illusion of agreement (see chapter 2). If people cannot imagine possible alternatives to their conclusions, they will naturally assume that other observers must reach the same conclusion, too. Of course, few of us have the good fortune of being highly confident about all our judgments, and all of us have had the experience of ...more
Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
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