A caveat is needed here. The definition of success is a nontrivial problem. Typically, performance is evaluated on the basis of supervisor ratings. Sometimes, the metric is length of employment. Such measures raise questions, of course, especially given the questionable validity of performance ratings, which we noted in the previous chapter. However, for the purpose of evaluating the quality of an employer’s judgments when selecting employees, it seems reasonable to use the judgments that the same employer makes when evaluating the employees thus hired. Any analysis of the quality of hiring
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