Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment

by Daniel Kahneman

review. First, it is wise to recognize the difference between domains in which expertise can be confirmed by comparison with true values (such as weather forecasting) and domains that are the province of respect-experts. A political analyst may sound articulate and convincing, and a chess grandmaster may sound timid and unable to explain the reasoning behind some of his moves. Yet we probably should treat the professional judgment of the former with more skepticism than that of the latter. Second, some judges are going to be better than their equally qualified and experienced peers. If they are better, they are less likely to be biased or noisy. Among many things that explain these differences, intelligence and cognitive style matter. Although no single measure or scale unambiguously predicts judgment quality, you may want to look for the sort of people who actively search for new information that could contradict their prior beliefs, who are methodical in integrating that information into their current perspective, and who are willing, even eager, to change their minds as a result.