Many judgments involve forecasting. What is the unemployment rate likely to be in the next quarter? How many electric cars will be sold next year? What will be the effects of climate change in 2050? How long will it take to complete a new building? What will be the annual earnings of a particular company? How will a new employee perform? What will be the cost of a new air pollution regulation? Who will win an election? The answers to such questions have major consequences. Fundamental choices of
