Wally Bock

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Substitution of one question for another is not restricted to similarity and probability. Another example is the replacement of a judgment of frequency by an impression of the ease with which instances come to mind. For example, the perception of the risk of airplane crashes or hurricanes rises briefly after well-publicized instances of such events. In theory, a judgment of risk should be based on a long-term average. In reality, recent incidents are given more weight because they come more easily to mind. Substituting a judgment of how easily examples come to mind for an assessment of ...more
Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
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