Both intractable uncertainty (what cannot possibly be known) and imperfect information (what could be known but isn’t) make perfect prediction impossible. These unknowns are not problems of bias or noise in your judgment; they are objective characteristics of the task. This objective ignorance of important unknowns severely limits achievable accuracy. We take a terminological liberty here, replacing the commonly used uncertainty with ignorance. This term helps limit the risk of confusion between uncertainty, which is about the world and the future, and noise, which is variability in judgments
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Bounded rationality
