There is a psychological explanation for this observation. Some events are surprising: a deadly pandemic, an attack on the Twin Towers, a star hedge fund that turns out to be a Ponzi scheme. In our personal lives as well, there are occasional shocks: falling in love with a stranger, the sudden death of a young sibling, an unexpected inheritance. Other events are actively expected, like a second-grader’s return from school at the appointed time. But most human experience falls between these two extremes. We are sometimes in a state in which we actively expect a specific event, and we are
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