Some years after his shocking discovery of the futility of much long-term forecasting, Tetlock teamed up with his spouse, Barbara Mellers, to study how well people do when asked to forecast world events in the relatively short term—usually less than a year. The team discovered that short-term forecasting is difficult but not impossible, and that some people, whom Tetlock and Mellers called superforecasters, are consistently better at it than most others, including professionals in the intelligence community. In the terms we use here, their new findings are compatible with the notion that
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