So, now that we know how they were scored, how well did the Good Judgment Project volunteers do? One of the major findings was that the overwhelming majority of the volunteers did poorly, but about 2% stood out. As mentioned earlier, Tetlock calls these well-performing people superforecasters. They were hardly unerring, but their predictions were much better than chance. Remarkably, one government official said that the group did significantly “better than the average for intelligence community analysts who could read intercepts and other secret data.” This comparison is worth pausing over.
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