Some of the most innovative work on the quality of forecasting, going well beyond what we have explored thus far, started in 2011, when three prominent behavioral scientists founded the Good Judgment Project. Philip Tetlock (whom we encountered in chapter 11 when we discussed his assessment of long-term forecasts of political events); his spouse, Barbara Mellers; and Don Moore teamed up to improve our understanding of forecasting and, in particular, why some people are good at it.
