Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment

by Daniel Kahneman

These interventions exemplify three of the strategies we have described to improve judgments: 1. Training: Several forecasters completed a tutorial designed to improve their abilities by teaching them probabilistic reasoning. In the tutorial, the forecasters learned about various biases (including base-rate neglect, overconfidence, and confirmation bias); the importance of averaging multiple predictions from diverse sources; and considering reference classes. 2. Teaming (a form of aggregation): Some forecasters were asked to work in teams in which they could see and debate one another’s predictions. Teaming could increase accuracy by encouraging forecasters to deal with opposing arguments and to be actively open-minded. 3. Selection: All forecasters were scored for accuracy, and at the end of a full year, the top 2% were designated as superforecasters and given the opportunity to work together in elite teams the following year.