The Nones: Where They Came From, Who They Are, and Where They Are Going

by Ryan P. Burge

Demographically, Black Protestants have seen a slow downward drift over the past three decades, which is displayed in figure 1.4. In the mid-1980s, almost one in ten Americans was affiliated with a Black Protestant tradition. That share has declined in the past twenty years. Now approximately 6 percent of Americans are Black Protestants. Why the decline? A big part of it is that while just 5 percent of Black people said that they were religiously unaffiliated in 1980, that number has quadrupled in 2018 to 20.8 percent of the Black population—which, coincidentally, is almost the same trajectory as the rise of the nones in the entire American population. Coupled with the fact that the share of Americans who identify as African American has stayed stagnant over the past three decades, this will lead to an inevitable decline. In chapter 3, I will discuss how several demographics, including race, impact the rate of disaffiliation.

German sociologist Max Weber argued that as rationality and scientific discovery began to explode after the Enlightenment, human beings began to see the error of their ways and came to understand rain as the outcome of scientific processes, not the result of divine intervention. The German word Weber used to describe this shift in understanding, Entzauberung, is often translated “disenchantment” in English, but the literal translation seems much more fitting: “de-magic-ation.” Thus Weber argues that civilizations used to understand their world through superstition but now have the tools of science and rationality to guide their activities.

What might be the most surprising racial group is Black Americans, however. In 2008, they were the least likely to be religiously unaffiliated (17.7 percent). In just a ten-year time period, the rate of disaffiliation has jumped a staggering 14.4 percentage points to 32.1 percent. It seems possible that the share of Black people who are nones might double in less than fifteen years.

Consider this: a white none is three times more likely to be an atheist or agnostic compared with a Black person.

If a Christian is trying to be strategic about reaching out to those without a religious affiliation, the data tells a clear story: trying to convert atheists is going to end in failure ninety-nine times out of a hundred. The success rate for evangelizing agnostics is higher but still not great, succeeding just one in thirty times. However, that rate goes up dramatically for nothing in particulars. The data indicates that one in six of them will move back toward a Christian tradition over a four-year period.

Nothing in particulars are the largest group and share little in common with atheists or agnostics. While their gender distribution reflects that of the United States as a whole, they have incredibly low levels of educational attainment, and many of them make below-average incomes. Socially and politically, they are isolated. They don’t attend rallies, they don’t go to political meetings, and they are less likely to give blood.

Nearly six in ten of them are making less than $50,000 per year. They seem isolated as well. These are the people who may be the most receptive to faith and the most likely to gain real social and economic benefits from being part of a religious community. If religious groups want to reverse the growth of the nones, they should look no further than the nothing in particulars in their midst.