Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know
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Read between February 23 - February 24, 2025
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a turbulent world, there’s another set of cognitive skills that might matter more: the ability to rethink and unlearn.
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Part of the problem is cognitive laziness. Some psychologists point out that we’re mental misers:10 we often prefer the ease of hanging on to old views over the difficulty of grappling with new ones.
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When it comes to our knowledge and opinions, though, we tend to stick to our guns. Psychologists call this seizing and freezing.11 We favor the comfort of conviction over the discomfort of doubt, and we let our beliefs get brittle long before our bones. We laugh at people who still use Windows 95, yet we still cling to opinions that we formed in 1995. We listen to views that make us feel good, instead of ideas that make us think hard.
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Mental horsepower doesn’t guarantee mental dexterity. No matter how much brainpower you have, if you lack the motivation to change your mind, you’ll miss many occasions to think again. Research reveals that the higher you score on an IQ test, the more likely you are to fall for stereotypes, because you’re faster at recognizing patterns.21 And recent experiments suggest that the smarter you are,22 the more you might struggle to update your beliefs.
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In psychology there are at least two biases that drive this pattern. One is confirmation bias:23 seeing what we expect to see. The other is desirability bias:24 seeing what we want to see.
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My favorite bias is the “I’m not biased”25 bias, in which people believe they’re more objective than others. It turns out that smart people are more likely to fall into this trap.26 The brighter you are, the harder it can be to see your own limitations. Being good at thinking can make you worse at rethinking.
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Thinking like a scientist involves more than just reacting with an open mind. It means being actively open-minded.27 It requires searching for reasons why we might be wrong—not for reasons why we must be right—and revising our views based on what we learn.
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the purpose of learning isn’t to affirm our beliefs; it’s to evolve our beliefs.
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Research shows that when people are resistant to change, it helps to reinforce what will stay the same. Visions for change are more compelling when they include visions of continuity. Although our strategy might evolve, our identity will endure.
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The curse of knowledge is that it closes our minds to what we don’t know. Good judgment depends on having the skill—and the will—to open our minds.
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You can be confident in your ability to achieve a goal in the future while maintaining the humility to question whether you have the right tools in the present. That’s the sweet spot of confidence.