It makes sense, as Wittgenstein would say, to apportion the overwhelming majority of our credence to the possibility that the world we see is real, and functions pretty much as we see it. Naturally, we are always willing to update our beliefs in the face of new evidence. If there comes a clear night, when the stars in the sky rearrange themselves to say, “I AM YOUR PROGRAMMER. HOW DO YOU LIKE YOUR SIMULATION SO FAR?” we can shift our credences appropriately.
