So one might have hoped for accuracy. But no – the subjects flattered themselves hopelessly. If they put some event at a 25 per cent likelihood, and then it happened, they might then remember they’d called it as a 50/50 proposition. If a subject had put a 60 per cent probability on an event which later failed to happen, she might later recall that she’d forecast a 30 per cent probability. The Fischhoff-Beyth paper was titled ‘I knew it would happen’.
Flatter ourselves
