The instinctive starting point is to think about the couple. It’s always hard to imagine divorce in the middle of the romance of a wedding day (although sharing a whisky with the bride’s ex-boyfriend may shake you out of that rosy glow) but you’d naturally ponder questions such as: ‘Do they seem happy and committed to each other?’; ‘Have I ever seen them argue?’; and ‘Have they split up and got back together three times already?’ In other words, we make a forecast with the facts that are in front of our nose.
Facts in front of our nose
