fourth and perhaps most crucial element: superforecasting is a matter of having an open-minded personality. The superforecasters are what psychologists call ‘actively open-minded thinkers’ – people who don’t cling too tightly to a single approach, are comfortable abandoning an old view in the light of fresh evidence or new arguments, and embrace disagreements with others as an opportunity to learn. ‘For superforecasters, beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded,’ wrote Philip Tetlock after the study had been completed. ‘It would be facile to reduce superforecasting to a
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