Apollo's Arrow: The Profound and Enduring Impact of Coronavirus on the Way We Live

by Nicholas A. Christakis MD PhD

It can be difficult to differentiate the adverse economic impact of the virus itself from the adverse economic effects of the nonpharmaceutical interventions people implemented in response. Viruses can sicken and kill people and compromise the economy directly. And the precautions that people take in response, such as not spending their money or avoiding social interactions, can have adverse economic impacts on their own. A careful analysis of the 1918 pandemic in the United States that took advantage of variation in the timing of the arrival of the virus from place to place as well as variation in the timing of implementation of the nonpharmaceutical interventions as a kind of natural experiment concluded that it was the pandemic itself that depressed the economy, not the public health responses.