China’s greatest contribution to global growth and globalisation is past us. The current account surplus peaked in 2007 and it will now move into a deficit over time. Nominal GDP growth topped out in 2012 at around 18% and fell very sharply to just over 5% in 2015 before recovering somewhat. Investment growth and the property sector mirrored this fall but have remained in a much more subdued, post-crisis-type state since then. Its stock of hard currency reserves still stands at USD 3 trillion but could fall further as the current account moves into deficit territory.
