Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House, 2020

by Allan J Lichtman

In part, third-party campaigns count against the party holding the White House, not through their direct influence on elections, but because they are barometers of discontent. The emergence of a significant third-party contender usually signals problems with the performance of the party in power, irrespective of what’s happening with the challenging party. Third-party campaigns also change the dynamics of an election. Typically, third-party insurgents direct their fire against the party in power, ignoring the challenging nominee. With little to lose, third-party campaigners can be especially wicked in their attacks. The result is a whip-saw of criticism that makes life difficult for the incumbent-party candidate, usually before the fall campaign even begins. Never in modern U.S. history has a third-party campaign reelected an incumbent administration by splitting the opposition vote. Coolidge in 1924 and Truman in 1948 were the only incumbent-party nominees to survive a major third-party challenge. Coolidge won an outright popular-vote majority of 54.1 percent; Truman won a near majority of 49.5 percent, despite insurgent nominees from the Left and Right of his own party.

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a margin of 1,898 votes, Garfield won