Probing for counterfactual thinking, we asked what sequence of events might occur that would result in the ceiling lifting earlier than that, by noon. He was unable to imagine such a possibility. He had followed a set of rules to generate his prediction and could not conceive of a different world. To us, this signaled the fact that he was not an expert.
Interesting. Could perhaps be useful for interviewing. An expert in a skill should have an advanced mental model able to account for and imagine many different variations of a particular situation. Whereas novices may only consider one a single understanding of a situation. E.g. re performance management, being able to come up with dofferent potential reasons and different approaches, given these reasons.
