If we continue with our scenario, that the Vincennes had not fired and had been attacked by an F-14, the decision researchers would have still claimed that it was a dear case of bias, except this time the bias would have been to ignore the base rates, to ignore the expectancies. No one can win. If you act on expectancies and you are wrong, you are guilty of expectancy bias. If you ignore expectancies and are wrong, you are guilty of ignoring base rates and expectancies. This means that the decision bias approach explains too much (Klein, 1989). If an appeal to decision bias can explain
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Example of a prbolem with trying to explain or judge incidents after the fact woth hindsight.
