One of the most unexpected things I learned from reviewing the Apollo 13 episodes was the importance of forecasting. In my tally, fifteen of the episodes required forecasting. In four of these, the forecasts resulted in a revised problem representation, and in another three episodes the forecasting produced problem detection.
Forecasts are a form of mental (or otherwise) simulation that check the viability of current plans. But also very importantly, they are a way to test our assumptions and our understanding of the situation. If there is deviation from the forecast, then we are either incorrect, have missed some crucial information, or something has changed. All compel us to revise our understanding of the situation.
