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scout mindset: the motivation to see things as they are, not as you wish they were.
our judgment isn’t limited by knowledge nearly as much as it’s limited by attitude.
1. REALIZE THAT TRUTH ISN’T IN CONFLICT WITH YOUR OTHER GOALS
2. LEARN TOOLS THAT MAKE IT EASIER TO SEE CLEARLY
3. APPRECIATE THE EMOTIONAL REWARDS OF SCOUT MINDSET
“CAN I BELIEVE IT?” VS. “MUST I BELIEVE IT?”
motivated reasoning—
the metaphor of reasoning as a kind of defensive combat is baked right into the English language,
soldier mindset—
Picquart succeeded. Dreyfus was fully pardoned
In contrast to directionally motivated reasoning, which evaluates ideas through the lenses of “Can I believe it?” and “Must I believe it?,” accuracy motivated reasoning evaluates ideas through the lens of “Is it true?”
Being in scout mindset means wanting your “map”—your perception of yourself and the world—to be as accurate as possible.
the more you can avoid distorting your perception of reality, the better your judgment will be.
“What function does motivated reasoning serve?” I’ve broken it down into six overlapping categories: comfort, self-esteem, morale, persuasion, image, and belonging.
A rationally irrational person would deny problems only when the comfort of denial is sufficiently high and their chance of fixing the problem is sufficiently low.
we’re far from rationally irrational.
valuable scout habits build up over time.
WE UNDERESTIMATE THE RIPPLE EFFECTS OF SELF-DECEPTION
WE OVERESTIMATE SOCIAL COSTS
there’s room for improvement, untapped opportunities to make our lives better, if we can learn to rely less on soldier mindset and more on scout mindset instead.
AN ACCURATE MAP IS MORE USEFUL NOW
Having an accurate map doesn’t help you very much when you’re allowed to travel only one path.
Increasingly, our world is becoming one that rewards the ability to see clearly,
FEELING OBJECTIVE DOESN’T MAKE YOU A SCOUT
BEING SMART AND KNOWLEDGEABLE DOESN’T MAKE YOU A SCOUT
being smart and being knowledgeable on a particular topic are two more things that give us a false sense of security in our own reasoning.
Intelligence and knowledge are just tools. You can use those tools to help you see the world clearly, if that’s what you’re motivated to do. Or you can use them to defend a particular viewpoint, if you’re motivated to do that instead.
ACTUALLY PRACTICING SCOUT
MINDSET MAKES YOU A SCOUT
1. Do you tell other people when you realize they were right?
acknowledge to yourself that you were wrong,
2. How do you react to personal criticism?
a bet worth taking.”
expected value.
as you continue making positive expected value bets, that variance will mostly wash out in the long run. Building that variance into your expectations has the nice side effect of giving you equanimity.
‘I knew this card was in the deck, and I knew the odds,
Some coping strategies involve self-deception, and some don’t—so why settle for the former?
epistemic confidence,
social confidence,
“It appears to me at present
Discovering you were wrong is an update, not a failure, and your worldview is a living document meant to be revised.
BE WILLING TO STAY CONFUSED
‘That’s funny
LISTEN TO PEOPLE YOU FIND REASONABLE
people’s political and religious views are often part of their identities.
I’ve observed two things that turn a belief into an identity: Feeling embattled, and feeling proud.
the frequentists and the Bayesians,
“oppositional identity”—
The problem with identity is that it wrecks your ability to think clearly.
“Keep Your Identity Small,” by tech investor Paul Graham.
