The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't

by Julia Galef

Elon Musk: If something’s important enough you should try. Even if the probable outcome is failure.

Most people are already on board with the idea of a “bet worth taking,” in at least some contexts. To give a simple example, suppose someone offered you a bet in which you roll a normal six-sided die. If it lands on a six, you win $200; if not, you lose $10. Should you take it? Almost certainly. This is a good bet for you—and you can see exactly how good it is by calculating its expected value. That’s the average amount a bet pays out each time, if you were to take it an infinite number of times.

To calculate a bet’s expected value, multiply the probability of each outcome by its value and then add up those results. For this bet, the expected value would be: ([⅙ probability of winning] × $200) + ([⅚ probability of losing] × –$10) = $33.33 $8.33 = $25 In other words, if you took this bet many times, the average amount you would win each time is about $25. Not bad money for simply rolling a die! This is a great bet to take, even though the most likely outcome is failure.

ACCEPTING VARIANCE GIVES YOU EQUANIMITY

accepting the possibility of failure in advance is liberating. It makes you bold, not timid.

When one interviewer praised Elon Musk for being fearless in starting companies that other people think are crazy, Musk admitted that he actually feels fear very strongly. He’s just learned to manage that fear by coming to terms with the probability of failure.