The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't

by Julia Galef

There’s a core skill in this chapter, too: being able to tell the difference between the feeling of making a claim and the feeling of actually trying to guess what’s true. Making a claim feels like your press secretary is speaking. It feels pat; neat and tidy. Sometimes hurried, as if you’re trying to put something past yourself. The mental motion is declaring, proclaiming, insisting, or perhaps scoffing. Trying to guess what’s true feels like being the board of directors, deciding how to bet. There’s at least a second or two when you don’t know what answer you’re going to end up giving. It’s like you’re squinting at the evidence, trying to summarize what you see. The mental motions involved are estimating, predicting, weighing, and deliberating. Quantifying your uncertainty, getting calibrated, and coming up with hypothetical bets are all valuable skills in their own right. But having the self-awareness to be able to tell whether you’re describing reality honestly, to the best of your abilities, is even more valuable still.