A bet is any decision in which you stand to gain or lose something of value, based on the outcome. That could include money, health, time—or reputation, as in the case of your catering friend who wants your endorsement. So when you’re thinking about how sure you are, your answer will be more honest if you switch from thinking in terms of “What can I get away with claiming to myself?” to “How would I bet, if there was something at stake?”
