Every decision is a kind of prediction: about how much you’ll like something you haven’t tried yet, about where a certain trend is heading, about how the road less traveled (or more so) is likely to pan out. And every prediction, crucially, involves thinking about two distinct things: what you know and what you don’t. That is, it’s an attempt to formulate a theory that will account for the experiences you’ve had to date and say something about the future ones you’re guessing at. A good theory, of course, will do both. But the fact that every prediction must in effect pull double duty creates a
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