Containing a new infectious disease before it has spread far nearly always means reacting before it seems like a big deal, she says. There may be only a few clinical cases, but you know several times that number are already infected and incubating the disease, especially if it is very contagious and spreads early in the course of infection. Covid-19 ticks both boxes. You have to contain such things early before they escalate. This can be difficult, as at that point officials often see the threat as too trivial for such disruption, scoffing that more people die falling down stairs—forgetting
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