About half of the world’s oil tanker shipments pass through the South China Sea, not only to China, but also to Japan and South Korea. For Japan and South Korea, the possible risk of disruption would come from actions by China. For China, however, there is only one “certain power”—the United States and, in particular, the U.S. Navy. Chinese strategists focus on a potential crisis scenario: Taiwan threatens independence, and China responds with force. The United States, in turn, responds by cutting the South China Sea oil line to China.
