The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations

by Daniel Yergin

When Donald Trump became president, he changed the setting on the table. No longer, in the view of his administration, is China an economic partner, albeit a challenging one. Now it is an economic adversary as well as a strategic rival. The WTO consensus is out the window. Trump denounced the 2001 WTO agreement as “the greatest job theft in history.” Once in the White House, he declared, “Trade wars are good, and easy to win,” although not indicating which ones he had in mind. Those of the 1930s had proved neither good nor easy to win, and ended badly for all concerned.14 The trade war is part of a striking shift in the overall approach of the United States. The Trump administration’s National Security Strategy represented a sharp break from the position of five previous presidents. Those presidents and their administrations had not hesitated to criticize China over a range of major issues. But they all sought to emphasize “engagement” and the positive potential: “cooperative relationship” (Reagan); working together to contribute to “regional stability and the global balance” (George H. W. Bush); “broader engagement” (Clinton); “constructive relationship with a changing China” and “responsible stakeholder” (George W. Bush); “deepen our cooperation” (Obama).