This would not affect new discoveries of the Netherlands’ offshore, but it would mean that Europe would lose what had been its largest domestic source of gas. Europe will need additional imports. Some will come from Azerbaijan through a new pipeline system that reaches into Italy. Some might come from Israel and Cyprus. Some would come from LNG. But Russian gas, whatever the route, would also benefit from the declining domestic production. Yet the concern about Russia’s potential leverage from gas exports does not fully recognize how much both the European and world gas markets have changed.
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