The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations

by Daniel Yergin

Current production from the South China Sea itself is about 900,000 barrels per day, which is less than 1 percent of world consumption in 2019. But what about the future? The highest estimate comes from a Chinese source that estimated 125 billion barrels of reserves still to be discovered—roughly on the same scale as Iraq’s and Kuwait’s. Other projections are much lower. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates about twelve billion barrels of undiscovered oil, which corresponds with estimates from international oil companies. It is also thought that the most likely discoveries will be closer to the shores, and only one-fifth would fall into contested waters. The more central and controversial area of the South China Sea is estimated to be less prospective, owing to the thinness of the sediments and insufficient pressure. Moreover, the considerable sea depths and lack of infrastructure would make the development of any resources expensive. In any event, it is thought that the bulk of any discoveries is likely to be natural gas, not oil.