“For superforecasters, beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded,” wrote Philip Tetlock after the study had been completed. “It would be facile to reduce superforecasting to a bumper-sticker slogan, but if I had to, that would be it.”14 And if even that is too long for the bumper sticker, what about this: superforecasting means being willing to change your mind.
