Most of the books people read are bestsellers—but most books are not bestsellers, and most book projects never become books at all. There’s a similar tale to tell about music, films, and business ventures. Even cases of COVID-19 are subject to selective attention: people who feel terrible go to the hospital and are tested for the disease; people who feel fine do not. As a result, the disease looks even more dangerous than it really is. Even though statisticians understand this problem perfectly well, there’s no easy way to solve it without systematic testing. And in the early stages of the
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