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Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and STAN (Chapman & Hall/CRC Texts in Statistical Science), by Richard McElreath

And more complex models tend towards more overfitting than simple ones—the smarter the golem, the dumber its predictions.

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Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and STAN (Chapman & Hall/CRC Texts in Statistical Science)

Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and STAN (Chapman & Hall/CRC Texts in Statistical Science)

by Richard McElreath

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