The Unthinkable: Who Survives When Disaster Strikes - and Why

by Amanda Ripley

“Knowledge will grow scientific only after the most faithful examination of many catastrophes.”

There’s a 28 percent risk of another pandemic as deadly as Covid-19 striking before 2033, according to disaster forecasters. But

Before we go any further, it’s probably wise to acknowledge that most people in high-income countries do not die in disasters; they die of diseases that attack from within, not violence that comes from outside. Alzheimer’s disease kills many more people than fire. Even if you do make a particularly dramatic exit, it probably won’t be in a disaster. You are more likely to die of food poisoning than you are of drowning.

As Hunter S. Thompson said, “Call on God, but row away from the rocks.”

Trust is the basic building block of any effective warning system. Right now, it’s too scarce in both directions: Officials don’t trust the public, and the public doesn’t trust officials.

In late February, Iranian officials promised that the outbreak would not make it to their country, and even boasted about sending face masks to China. Two weeks later, Iran had one of the highest infection rates in the world.

The United States, like many other countries, had a preexisting condition, a crack running through its foundation. Americans did not trust the government, news outlets, big businesses, the police, or one another.

High-income nations experience just as many natural disasters as lower-income nations. The difference is in the death toll.

The 1994 Northridge earthquake in California, for example, was similar in magnitude and depth to the 2005 earthquake in Pakistan. But the Northridge earthquake killed only sixty-three people. The Pakistan earthquake killed about a hundred thousand.

They believe they can influence what happens to them. They find meaningful purpose in life’s turmoil. They are convinced they can learn from both good and bad experiences.