Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail

by Ray Dalio

Human productivity is the most important force in causing the world’s total wealth, power, and living standards to rise over time.

In other words, when borrowing and spending are strong, the empire appears very strong, but its finances are in fact being weakened because the borrowing sustains the country’s power beyond its fundamentals by financing both domestic overconsumption and international military conflicts

While many countries have natural resources that they are able to draw upon, human capital is the most sustainable capital because inherited assets that are drawn down eventually disappear, whereas human capital can exist forever.

those societies that draw on the widest range of people and give them responsibilities based on their merits rather than privileges are the most sustainably successful because 1) they find the best talent to do their jobs well, 2) they have diversity of perspectives, and 3) they are perceived as the fairest, which fosters social stability.

While money and credit are associated with wealth, they aren’t the same thing as wealth. Because money and credit can buy wealth (i.e., goods and services), the amount of money and credit you have and the amount of wealth you have look pretty much the same. But you cannot create more wealth simply by creating more money and credit. To create more wealth, you have to be more productive. The relationship between the creation of money and credit and the creation of wealth is often confused, yet it is the biggest driver of economic cycles. Let’s look at it more closely.

Averages don’t matter as much as the number of people who are suffering and their power. Those who favor policies that are good for the whole—e.g., free trade, globalization, advances in technology that replace people—without thinking about what happens if the whole is not divided in a way that benefits most people are missing the fact that the whole is at risk. To have peace and prosperity, a society must have productivity that benefits most people.

An essential ingredient for success is that the debt and money that are created are used to produce productivity gains and favorable returns on investment, rather than just being given away without yielding productivity and income gains. If it is given away without yielding these gains, the money will be devalued to the point that it won’t leave the government or anyone else with much buying power.

the value of assets is the reciprocal of the value of money and credit (i.e., the cheaper money and credit are, the more expensive asset prices are) and the value of money is the reciprocal of the quantity of it in existence, so when central banks are producing a lot of money and credit and making it cheaper, it is wise to be more aggressive in owning assets.

in the markets and in life, to be successful one should bet on the upside that comes from a) evolution that leads to productivity improvements, but not so aggressively that b) cycles and bumps along the way knock you out of the game.

Essentially, if I have a bunch of bets that are attractive but unrelated, I can reduce my risks by up to 80 percent without reducing my upside at all. While this sounds like an investment strategy it’s actually an old and well-established good life strategy that I apply to investments as well. There is a Chinese saying that “a smart rabbit has three burrows,” meaning three places to go to in case any one of them becomes dangerous. This principle has saved many people’s lives when things got bad, and it’s one of my most important principles. Put deferred gratification ahead of immediate gratification so you will be better off in the future.