As an example, we made an index of the number of economic red flags that have existed at different times in history, including measures of high inequality, high debt and deficits, inflation, and bad growth, to show how indicative they are of subsequent civil wars and revolutions. The following chart shows the estimated likelihood of a civil-war-type conflict based on the number of red flags. Based on what we have seen in the past, we estimate that when there are 60–80 percent of the red flags present, there is around a 1-in-6 chance of severe internal conflict. When lots of these conditions
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