Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail

by Ray Dalio

Chinese leaders don’t just try to implement their plans; they set out clear metrics by which to judge their performance, and they achieve most of their goals. I’m not saying that this process is perfect because it isn’t, and I’m not saying that they don’t have political and other challenges that lead to disagreements, including some brutal fights over what should be done, because they do (in private). What I am saying is that the Chinese have much longer-term and historically based perspectives and planning horizons, which they break down into shorter-term plans and ways of operating, and they have done an excellent job of achieving what they have set out to do by following this approach. Coincidentally, my own search for patterns in history and my way of dealing with tactical decisions has had a similar effect on how I see and do things—e.g., I now view the last 500 years as recent history, the most relevant historical arcs seem about 100-plus years long, and the patterns I’ve gleaned from this perspective help me anticipate how events are likely to transpire, and how I should be positioned for them over the coming weeks, months, and years.