For example, as shown before, when 1) a country’s finances are deteriorating at the same time as 2) the level of internal conflict is high (e.g., over wealth and/or values differences), while 3) the country is being challenged by one or more strong foreign rivals, that typically produces 4) a mutually and self-reinforcing decline. That’s because the country’s deteriorating finances make it impossible for it to satisfy domestic spending needs and finance the war, which causes worse outcomes. Now that these things
