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Ray Dalio
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May 23, 2022 - January 13, 2023
top down, demanding high standards of civility, putting the collective interest ahead of individual interests, requiring each person to know their role and how to play it well, and having filial respect for those superior in the hierarchy. They also seek “rule by the proletariat,” which in common parlance means that opportunities and rewards are broadly distributed.
run the country from the bottom up, demanding high levels of personal freedom, favoring individualism over collectivism, admiring revolutionary thinking and behavior, and not respecting people for their positions as much as for the quality of their thinking.
Chinese believe that having capable, wise leaders make the choices is preferable to having the general population make the choice on a “one person, one vote” basis because they believe that the general population is less informed and less capable.
Most believe that the general population will choose the leaders on whims and based on what those seeking to be elected will give them in order to buy their support rather than what’s best for them.
The quality of leadership can’t be measured as objectively as the amount of economic output (e.g., how can you measure whether Donald Trump was a good leader or a bad one?).
ummm....most Americans, and historians, have had no trouble with this. But billionaires like Ray Dalio can get confused since he dramatically reduced their taxes.
Over the next 10 years, the most important dynamics are the short-term debt/money/economy cycle (also called the business cycle), the internal political cycle, and the escalating conflicts/reducing interdependencies between the US and China.
my guess is that the next downturn will come sooner than is typical. I’d estimate in about four
years from publication of book in 2021 would be 2025. Pretty sure he's right about this, based on Fed's tightening in 2023.
Based on my estimates, there is a significant chance the next downturn will come around the time of the next presidential election in the US.
Eighty percent of the years before 1800 had wars; it’s been 20 percent since.
The United States is in an unfavorable position in its economic and financial cycles, with a high debt burden and relatively low expected real growth over the next 10 years (1.1 percent per year).
