While it might seem odd that an investment manager who is required to make investment decisions on short time frames would pay so much attention to long-term history, through my experiences I have learned that I need this perspective. My approach isn’t an academic one created for scholarly purposes; it is a very practical one that I follow in order to do my job well. The game I play requires me to understand what is likely to happen to economies better than the competition does, so I have spent roughly 50 years closely observing most major economies and their markets—as well as their political
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