Is competence a statistical notion: do not promise unless there is a high probability you will succeed? Consideration of lottery situations suggests otherwise. Sid should not promise to draw a red ball, even though there is a high probability he will keep such a promise. On the other hand, a skilled baker’s promise to make a delicious cake seems perfectly acceptable, even though there’s some real chance that the oven will break down, or the power will fail. Ernest Sosa has made sophisticated, fruitful use of the notion of competence in his epistemology. For Sosa, ‘Competences are dispositions
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