With a premortem, the investigation comes before we have acted, when the actual outcome isn’t known—before we fire the rockets, close the sale, or complete the merger. In a premortem, we travel forward in time and set up a thought experiment where we assume the project failed. We then step back and ask, “What went wrong?” By vividly visualizing a doomsday scenario, we come up with potential problems and determine how to avoid them. According to research, premortems increase by 30 percent the ability of participants to correctly determine the reasons for a future outcome.
