Think Like a Rocket Scientist: Simple Strategies You Can Use to Make Giant Leaps in Work and Life

by Ozan Varol

The connoisseurs of uncertainty know that an experiment with a known outcome is not an experiment at all and that revisiting the same answers is not progress.

It’s because they have mastered the art of using knowledge to reduce uncertainty. As astronaut Chris Hadfield explains, “In order to stay calm in a high-stress, high-stakes situation, all you really need is knowledge.… Being forced to confront the prospect of failure head-on—to study it, dissect it, tease apart all its components and consequences—really works.”67

Consider the game of peekaboo. The love of the game is universal: Some version of it is believed to exist in virtually every culture.69 The language is different, but “the rhythm, dynamics, and shared pleasure” all are the same.70 A familiar face first appears and then disappears behind someone’s hands. The baby sits there, puzzled and slightly alarmed, wondering what’s going on. But then the hands are drawn apart, revealing the face and restoring order to the world. Laughter follows. But laughter doesn’t follow—not to the same extent at least—when more uncertainty is introduced.71 In one study, infants smiled less when a different person appeared instead of the same one. Smiling also decreased when the same person reappeared, but in a different location. Even infants as young as six months old had some expectations of certainty as to the identity and location of the person. When these variables changed unexpectedly, so did the infants’ enjoyment.

when uncertainty lacks boundaries, discomfort becomes acute.

“Fear comes from not knowing what to expect and not feeling you have any control over what’s about to happen,” writes Hadfield. “When you feel helpless, you’re far more afraid than you would be if you knew the facts. If you’re not sure what to be alarmed about, everything is alarming.”

“Named must your fear be before banish it you can.”72 The naming, I’ve found, must be done in writing—with paper and pencil (or pen, if you’re into technology). Ask yourself, What’s the worst-case scenario? And how likely is that scenario, given what I know? Writing down your concerns and uncertainties—what you know and what you don’t know—undresses them. Once you lift up the curtain and turn the unknown unknowns into known unknowns, you defang them.

don’t forget the upside. In addition to considering the worst-case scenario, also ask yourself, What’s the best that can happen? Our negative thoughts resonate far more than our positive ones do. The brain, to paraphrase psychologist Rick Hanson, is like Velcro for the negative but Teflon for the positive. Unless you consider the best-case scenario along with the worst, your brain will steer you toward the seemingly safest path—inaction.

The path, as the mystic poet Rumi writes, won’t appear until you start walking. William Herschel started walking, grinding mirrors, and reading astronomy-for-dummies books even though he had no idea he would discover Uranus. Andrew Wiles started walking when he picked up a book on Fermat’s last theorem as a teenager, not knowing where his curiosity might lead. Steve Squyres started walking in search of his blank canvas, even though he had no idea it would one day lead him to Mars. The secret is to start walking before you see a clear path.

Process, by definition, is backward looking. It was developed in response to yesterday’s troubles. If we treat it like a sacred pact—if we don’t question it—process can impede forward movement. Over time, our organizational arteries get clogged with outdated procedures.

“If a factory is torn down but the rationality which produced it is left standing, then that rationality will simply produce another factory,” Robert Pirsig explains in Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance. “If a revolution destroys a systematic government, but the systematic patterns of thought that produced that government are left intact, then those patterns will repeat themselves.”30 Unless you change the underlying patterns of thought, you can expect more of the same—regardless of how many times you hold a sledgehammer party.